CEWARN facilitated a national conflict profiling exercise for Kenya on 9-14 November 2020 in Naivasha, Kenya. The exercise covered six cross border counties in Kenya, namely: Marsabit, Madera, Wajir, Garissa, Turkana and West Pokot.
It also drew together about thirty participants including County Commissioners as well as representatives of county government and civil society organizations. The aim of the exercise was to identify emerging risks of violent conflict in these counties with a view to inform CEWARN’s early warning and response work in Kenya.
The national conflict profiling exercise identified key developments and trends-to-watch as threats to human security as well as short, medium and long-term scenarios with corresponding recommendations.
The discussions were guided by a focus on human security and discussions around governance, Security, economy, social affairs and environment sectors that reflect the scope of CEWARN’s conflict early warning work.
Issues that were raised pertaining to peace and security across the six counties included: rivalry over political/ elective offices and negative ethnicity; internal and cross-border boundary disputes; resource based conflicts (including among mobile pastoralists involving Cattle rustling), highway banditry, violent extremism (including threat of homegrown radicalization); small arms proliferation; disputes related to oil/gas exploration and disputes related to displacement of communities for development as well as gender based violence( including early marriages and FGM.)
It was also noted that contestations for political offices during the 2022 general elections are likely to be accompanied by risks of insecurity.