The nexus between climate and conflict in the IGAD region
CEWARN commissioned an exploratory study on the nexus between climate and conflict in the IGAD region in September 2021. The study conducted by Virtual Research Associates Inc. (VRA) reviewed CEWARN’s conflict early warning data sets on Pastoral conflicts from 2003-2015, as well as data from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) on forage, rainfall and vegetation.
The main objective of the study was to determine the extent to which environmental variables add value to risk scores in anticipating conflict outcomes in the IGAD region. Building upon previous studies in 2007 and May 2020, the current study established that vegetation index as a measure of vegetation health did indeed influence human behavioral patterns, which in turn anticipated subsequent outcome of pastoral conflicts in a one month lag period. As a result of these findings, the study was able to statistically establish the nexus between climate and conflict. The conflict link with climate is drawn from the fact that vegetation conditions are predetermined by weather or climate factors.
Refer to the newsletter in the link provided to learn a bit more about the study.