Some of the critical factors identified include intra-state conflicts and inter-state tensions, compounded by geopolitical dynamics which impede localized resolution of conflicts. Another significant concern identified is the synergy between climate change impacts and governance deficits. Climate events continue to act as threat multipliers, straining weak state institutions and fuelling competition over dwindling resources, which in turn fuel violent conflicts. The draft also highlights transnational organized crime and its various manifestations as destabilizing factors. By exploiting porous borders and weak governance, criminal networks traffic arms, people, and resources. In so doing, they fuel violence and erode state authority.

Internally, mass youth discontent and disillusionment, and severe economic challenges create a volatile social base. A large young population with few opportunities and a high cost of living is a potent risk factor for social unrest and recruitment into armed groups. The draft findings will be subjected to several steps of rigorous internal and external review to strengthen the analysis and ensure it is grounded in evidence from across the different sectors. The final step will be a validation process by CEWARN’s senior technical and policy organs that will sign off the “2025/26 Regional Conflict Profiles and Scenarios Report” as an official decision tool for national and regional decision makers. Through its annual expert convening, CEWARN generates critical foresight on emerging human security threats in order to provide decision-makers with the predictive analysis needed to shift from reactive to coordinated, forward-looking crisis response.