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Strengthening Climate-Conflict Response: New Early Warning Tools Under Review

From 13 to 15 May, CEWARN convened a pivotal regional workshop in Entebbe, Uganda, bringing together representatives from three pilot areas—Aweil in South Sudan, Mandera in Kenya, and Karamoja South in Uganda—alongside national conflict early warning units, representatives from the UN, AU, EAC, COMESA, and the Government of Ireland, a key partner in CEWARN’s climate-security work.

The workshop focused on reviewing innovative tools under development to strengthen early warning capacities for climate-related conflict in vulnerable border regions. These tools aim to generate timely, actionable insights into how climate stress—such as droughts, flash floods, and land degradation—can heighten tensions and spark violence.
Participants shared vivid accounts from the ground, highlighting how climate shocks are triggering displacement, competition over resources, and increased social strain. At the same time, they pointed to local strategies of resilience and voiced a strong demand for systems that can better anticipate and help prevent violent conflict.

Two tools under review play distinct yet complementary roles. The Climate-Conflict Events Scanning & Monitoring System, developed by Nairobi-based DataCraft, enables CEWARN to track large volumes of events data from multiple sources—including local media—to identify patterns and monitor evolving risks. On the other hand, the Climate-Conflict Early Warning & Predictive Tool, developed by Boston-based Virtual Research Associates (VRA), offers forward-looking insights into emerging threats. This second tool is continuously refined using the data and trends detected through the scanning system, creating a dynamic feedback loop for forecasting and prevention.

Discussions emphasized the need for simplicity, local adaptability, and usability. While indicators like vegetation health offer useful signals, participants stressed the importance of interpreting such data within broader local contexts—such as drought recovery, delayed rainfall, and pressure on shared resources. Historical tensions and past shocks also shape how climate stress leads to instability.
Participants also called for integrating traditional knowledge systems, improving the tools’ user interfaces, and ensuring they are responsive to the realities of vulnerable communities.
The insights gathered from this workshop will guide further refinement of the tools, helping shape a more responsive, grounded early warning system for the IGAD region—one that is capable of turning climate data into meaningful, peace-promoting action.

CEWARN trained Sudanese Refugees and Host Communities in Conflict Resolution

From March 5-7, 2025, IGAD’s Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) conducted a three-day training and dialogue session in Wurock Town, Twic County, Warrap State, South Sudan.

The training focused on Conflict Prevention, Management, and Resolution (CPMR) for Sudanese refugees, returnees, and host communities, addressing the challenges of coexistence following a growing influx of displaced populations.

With tensions often arising from resource competition and differing social dynamics, the initiative provided a platform for open dialogue and practical learning, bringing together refugees, returnees, local government officials, civil society organizations, and humanitarian actors. Participants explored conflict resolution strategies, prevention mechanisms, and ways to foster peaceful coexistence through interactive sessions and collaborative discussions.

By equipping communities with the tools to manage disputes constructively, the program strengthened local conflict prevention capacities, enhanced communication, and built bridges of understanding among diverse groups.

The training resulted in a joint action plan for conflict prevention, improved communication channels, and a deeper awareness of peacebuilding mechanisms. Through these efforts, IGAD empowered communities as active agents of peace, fostering stability in one of the most conflict-sensitive regions of South Sudan.

CEWARN Wraps Up 2024 with its bi-annual Technical Committee Meeting

CEWARN convened its 19th Technical Committee on Early Warning and Response (TCEWR) meeting in Mombasa, Kenya, on 16–17 December 2024. This final activity of the year brought together national Conflict Early Warning and Response Units (CEWERUs), civil society,

 and other stakeholders from across the IGAD region to assess progress, strengthen partnerships, and address evolving security challenges.


The meeting served as a critical platform to deliberate on pressing issues such as humanitarian crises, climate-induced displacement, transnational crime, and youth radicalization. A highlight of the agenda was the presentation and rigorous review of the 2024

 Conflict Profiling and Scenarios Report, which offers a comprehensive analysis of nine key security risks and threats facing the IGAD region.

These include:

  • Transnational organized crime;
  • Inter-state tensions and intra-state wars;
  • Economic strain, including inflation, unemployment, and debt burden;
  • Gender-based violence (GBV), particularly in conflict;
  • Forced displacement and humanitarian crises;
  • Climate change risks, including eroding livelihoods and forced displacement;
  • Governance deficit;
  • Geopolitical threats;
  • Unregulated use of technology in crime and warfare

The report outlined potential scenarios—likely, best, and worst—and provided actionable recommendations for mitigating these threats. It will be officially released following a review by the CEWARN Committee of Permanent Secretaries (CPS), CEWARN’s highest policy organ, in early 2025.

Discussions also focused on enhancing CEWARN’s data management capabilities to ensure timely, effective interventions and expanding partnerships to strengthen inclusivity in conflict prevention efforts. Participants underscored the importance of innovative solutions and collective responsibility in building resilience and securing peace across the region.
 
This meeting not only capped off CEWARN’s activities for 2024 but also laid the groundwork for a robust, collaborative approach to address emerging security challenges in the year ahead.

Navigating the Climate-Security Nexus at COP29

On 20 November, CEWARN hosted an engaging side event at the UN Climate Conference dubbed COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan exploring the critical intersection of climate change and security. The session highlighted findings from a series of studies commissioned by CEWARN, examining the scientific correlation between climate variables and violent conflict, as well as practical steps CEWARN is taking to integrate climate data into its regional conflict early warning system.

We were joined by experts from IOM East and Southern Africa, who addressed the pressing issues of migration and displacement, as well as climate early warning specialists from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre in Nairobi. Representatives from the Government of Ireland were also present, reflecting their ongoing partnership in these efforts. Stay tuned for more updates!

CEWARN engages with early warning systems from EAC and AU on strengthening cooperation

From Nov 11-13, International IDEA mhosted a crucial meeting to strengthen collaboration amongst IGAD’s Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism and the early warning systems of the East African Community and the African Union.

The meeting’s aim was to refine the diagnostic and anticipatory capacities of these early warning systems; and strengthen their engagement with decision makers. The meeting, which also brought together academia and research experts, including representatives Institute for Security Studies and Interpeace, addressed the urgent need for robust, actionable early warning systems as crises across Africa become more complex and fast-moving.

Discussions also focused on revising legal frameworks, integrating gender sensitivity, and strengthening ties with academia and civil society to improve research and ensure timely, effective responses from decision-makers.

CEWARN co-convenes specialized training on Structured Analytical Techniques

A week long assessment mission by the African Development Bank (AfDB) to IGAD’s Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism concluded successfully, paving way for a $3M support to strengthen early warning and response systems in conflict prone areas in five countries from the IGAD region. A key step in augmenting IGAD’s efforts in building resilience and regional stability.

The mission led by Mr. Marcel Maglo of the African Development Bank (AfDB) was received by the IGAD Peace and Security Division Director Commander Abebe Muluneh and CEWARN Director Mr. Camlus Omogo.

CEWARN co-convenes specialized training on Structured Analytical Techniques

CEWARN and Institute for Security Studies hosted a specialized training on Structured Analytical Techniques, targeting 25 analysts drawn from the two host institutions; the East African Community, the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) with representatives of its sister institutions, namely the Enhanced Joint Verification Mechanism (EJVM) and the Joint Intelligence and Fusion Centre (JIFC).

The training focused on strengthening capabilities to analyze large volumes of geopolitical data and forecast strategic scenarios to support informed decision-making.

The training covered themes spanning from tackling bias in analysis; to exploring geopolitical forecasting and strategic scenario building. It concluded by identifying drivers of change and strategies for integrating these analytical tools into existing workflows to strengthen evidence-based decision-making in the face of complex regional dynamics.

CEWARN convenes regional experts to deliberate on emerging human security and violent conflict risks in the IGAD region

CEWARN brought together regional experts for a critical conflict profiling and scenario-building workshop in Entebbe from 17-19 September. The aim was to identify key human security concerns and conflict risks affecting the IGAD region.

This exercise, part of CEWARN’s broader mission to enhance early warning mechanisms, sought to deepen understanding of the complex factors shaping resilience and conflict vulnerability across IGAD member states.

The discussions covered a wide range of themes across governance, economic stability, security, social dynamics, and environmental sectors.

Among the key concerns highlighted were emerging and ongoing risks such as cybersecurity, climate change, economic instability, governance challenges, inter-state tensions, transnational crime, youth unemployment, external geopolitical influences, forced displacement, and other humanitarian issues.

Insights gained during the workshop will inform ongoing efforts to analyze critical challenges, trace their causes, identify key actors, and assess the impacts on the region. The findings will contribute to policy recommendations that strengthen CEWARN’s engagement with member states in conflict prevention and response.

CEWARN and NSC of Kenya co-jointly launch the CEWARN Compendium in Nairobi

On the 8 th August 2023, CEWARN co-hosted with the National Steering Committee on Peacebuilding and Conflict Management (NSC) of Kenya, a national dissemination event of CEWARN’s latest book ‘Conflict Early Warning in the Horn:
CEWARN’s Journey’ in Nairobi. The book launch event brought together up to 60 participants of national and international organizations engaged in peace, security and development work in Kenya.

Insightful discussions on strengthening national peace structures in Kenya were held and some reflections on ongoing conflict prevention and peace building efforts were made. Some of the reflections made during the interactive session, included the need to prioritize conflict prevention through adequate and financial investments; strengthening national ownership, building synergies as well as an inclusive society approach in tackling human security challenges. The event took place at Radisson Blu Upper hill in Nairobi, a breakfast launch event which ended with a special toast.

The Book Launch event was conducted with financial support from the European Union through the Austrian Development Agency (ADA) under the IPPSHAR Program.

The CEWARN Committee of Permanent Secretaries meets in Mombasa to acknowledge and appraise early warning and response work in Member States.

The 17 th Meeting of CEWARN Committee of Permanent Secretaries convened on 28 th July, 2023 in Mombasa, Kenya to acknowledge and appraise the mechanism work in IGAD region. The meeting was preceded by the Technical Committee
meeting on Early Warning comprising national conflict early warning and response units (CEWERUs), IGAD Focal Persons of Ministries of Foreign Affairs as well as civil society organizations representatives from Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia,
South Sudan and Uganda, who discussed and deliberated on early warning and response initiatives in Member States.

The CPS meeting was officiated by Dr. Korir Singoei Principal Secretary, State Department for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kenya, and Dr Fatuma Aden, the IGAD Head of Mission to Kenya representing the IGAD Executive Secretary. Mr Camlus Omogo, CEWARN Director welcomed Permanent Secretaries in his remarks and called for continued support from member states in positioning CEWARN’s National Conflict Early Warning and Response Units more strongly with adequate resources, decision-making capability and convening power to initiate early action. Followed by the IGAD Head of Mission to the Republic of Kenya, Dr Fatuma Aden spoke on behalf of the IGAD Executive Secretary, in her statement, appreciated member states’ commitment to the cause of IGAD and tirelessly supporting its work in addressing the region’s shared human security challenges. During the opening session, Dr Korir Singoei, Principal Secretary, State Department for Foreign Affairs of Kenya, also made remarks commending CEWARN’s focus on local-level conflict early warning and peace building, and the empowerment of local communities to be vanguards of their own security. He also further reiterated Kenya’s continued support for the operations of the mechanism.

During the meeting, CEWARN Unit provided sixty tablets and twenty four laptops to National CEWERUs and field reporters to facilitate their data collection, analysis and reporting by using upgraded tools. Equipments were purchased with the support of the European Union through the IPPSHAR Program.

In conclusion, after fruitful discussions, the Assembly adopted 16 decisions that will guide CEWARN mechanism’s operations for 2023-2024.

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