CEWARN Director Mr. Camlus Omogo and Head of the South Sudan Peace and Reconciliation Commission Hon. Chuol Rambang Luoth co-hosted the first national launch event of CEWARN’s latest book titled: “Conflict Early Warning in the Horn: CEWARN’s Journey” on 29 March in Juba, South Sudan.

Also present at the event were: Hon.Stephen Par Kuol, Minister of Peace building of the Republic of South Sudan as the guest of honour; Head of the RJMEC Maj. Gen. Tai Gituai, Chairperson of CTSAMVM, Lt. Gen Asrat Denero, Head of AUMISS Amb Prof. Joram M. Biswaro; IGAD Special Envoy to South Sudan Ambassador Ismael Wais as well as
IGAD Director of Peace and Security Hon. Siraj Fegessa.

Up to 40 participants that represent a mix of key government and non-government entities, academic institutions and think thanks, development partners as well as media have also attended the seminar. The event took place from 4pm to 6pm at the Pyramid Continental Hotel and has started with an official opening session, followed by a reflection
session where insightful comments on the book were shared, pertaining to its relevance for strengthening conflict prevention efforts in South Sudan and has concluded with a cocktail.

The IGAD region has grappled with a number of worrisome peace and security challenges in 2021. CEWARN has remained active in monitoring these developments and engaging with decision-makers by sharing early warning analysis. We take this opportunity to thank all CEWARN national and regional networks as well as
development partners for the continued support. We also extend wishes for a peaceful and prosperous 2022.

Mr. Camlus Omogo, CEWARN Director and Team!

Please find attached below CEWARN Reflections 2021 newsletter.

CEWARN commissioned an exploratory study on the nexus between climate and conflict in the IGAD region in September 2021. The study conducted by Virtual Research Associates Inc. (VRA) reviewed CEWARN’s conflict early warning data sets on Pastoral conflicts from 2003-2015, as well as data from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) on forage, rainfall and vegetation.

The main objective of the study was to determine the extent to which environmental variables add value to risk scores in anticipating conflict outcomes in the IGAD region. Building upon previous studies in 2007 and May 2020, the current study established that vegetation index as a measure of vegetation health did indeed influence human behavioral patterns, which in turn anticipated subsequent outcome of pastoral conflicts in a one month lag period. As a result of these findings, the study was able to statistically establish the nexus between climate and conflict. The conflict link with climate is drawn from the fact that vegetation conditions are predetermined by weather or climate factors.

Refer to the newsletter in the link provided to learn a bit more about the study.

CEWARN produces regional conflict early warning reports informed by bi-annual national and regional-level conflict profiling and scenario building exercises for the IGAD region. CEWARN has just released its 2021 regional conflict early warning profiling and scenario building report that is informed by country-specific thematic research, national conflict profiles and scenario-building reports.

The report flags nine conflict triggering issues-to-watch for 2021-2022 namely: youth unemployment, pandemics, mismanaged electoral processes, extreme climatic conditions, land and national resource-based conflicts, polarized ethnicity and tribalism, violent extremism, inter-state conflicts as well as proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALWs.)

The report contains brief descriptions and analysis on the nine-issues to watch and categorizes them as either persistent, emerging, escalating, dissipating, or a combination of two or more.

Refer to the regional report for details.

CEWARN is holding a virtual basic communications training for coordinators, programme leads and communications focal persons of its national Conflict Early Warning and Response Units (CEWERUs) in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda on 14-16 July 2021.

The training’s content includes: developing ‘messages that resonate’, multi-media story-telling, writing OP-EDs and effective media engagement. CEWARN recently completed the development of a new communications strategy that aims to expand the mechanism’s reach and influence.

CEWARN intends to expand its partnership base to embrace all key national and regional institutions working in security, governance, economy, social affairs and environment sectors in the IGAD region. This is in line with the thematic scope of CEWARN’s early warning and response work.

The CEWARN Communications Strategy is also aimed at achieving better positioning of the mechanism to inform high-level decision making on peace, security and development issues in the region. In addition, the CEWARN communications strategy emphasises the need for a proactive engagement with mainstream and social media in light of their critical influence on peace and security dynamics in the IGAD region.

Refer to English and French versions of the CEWARN Communications Strategy.

IGAD/CEWARN in close collaboration with the European Union Trust Fund through its IGAD Promoting Peace and Stability in the Horn of Africa (IPPSHAR) made available small grants to contribute to efforts aimed at addressing peace and security issues in IGAD Member States.

The Grant awarded to CEWARN/RRF is aimed at strengthening the Rapid Response capacity of the Member States to effectively prevent violent conflicts and their escalation at the local, national, and cross-border/regional levels in the IGAD region.

Please refer to a Call for Proposals in English and French enclosed herewith for further detail.