CEWARN convened a validation workshop to review a regional Conflict Early Warning Report on13-15 April in Bishoftu, Ethiopia.

The report captures emerging peace and security issues and trends across the IGAD region that is intended to inform national and regional level conflict prevention interventions. The report was developed based on the outcomes of national conflict profiling exercises conducted in Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda.

CEWARN facilitated a conflict profiling and scenario building exercise on 4-8 April 2021, in River Nile State, Sudan. The meeting brought together twenty participants from academia, national and sub-national experts in governance, security, social affairs, environment and economy as well as National CEWERU who actively contributed. Key issues that were raised as potential generators of conflicts across the country included: the absence of permanent constitution, unequitable distribution of resources, elections related conflict, land ownership, and youth unemployment.

CEWARN launches an expanded Rapid Response Fund (RRF) for use by national and community-based institutions in IGAD Member States to facilitate timely response to mitigate crises. RRF funds operate on a project basis with elaborate management procedures.

On 2-4 March, CEWARN held a sensitization workshop on new standard operating procedures of the Rapid Response Fund (RRF) for heads of its national Early Warning ‪ and Response Units (CEWERUs) and Financial Administration Units (FAUs) of member states, which were constituted to manage the facility.

Projects eligible to receive CEWARN RRF grants are typically short-term emergency ‪peace building interventions with a maximum value of Euro 50,000. National units who oversee project implementation appraise RRF projects initiated by local peace structures. The RRF avails 3 million Euros for a period of two years.

On 5 March 2021, the National Steering Committee’s Secretary of Peacebuilding and Disaster Response Mr. Peter Thuku and CEWARN Director Mr. Camlus Omogo convened a national launch event of CEWARN Rapid Response Fund for Kenya in Naivasha.

In attendance were Kenyan government and non-government institutions engaged in peace building such as members of the national conflict early warning and response unit’s steering committee, county commissioners, representatives of local peace committees and civil society organizations.

RRF funds were obtained from the Austria Development Agency (ADA), the governments of Netherlands, and Sweden as well as the European Union through the IGAD Promoting Peace and Stability in the Horn of Africa Region (IPPSHAR) program.

Refer to Press release for further information.

2020 was a challenging year. From an operations point of view, disruption of normal day-to-day operations due to the COVID19 pandemic demanded measures to adapt to new ways of doing things – including shifting to virtual platforms for collaboration.

CEWARN stayed the course in monitoring developments in the region and in sharing early warning analysis with decision-makers both in IGAD and in the Member States. CEWARN conveys its gratitude to its national, regional and international partners for the strong support that made it possible. Special thanks are in order to the European Union that provided financial support to CEWARN activities.

Below are some highlights of activities completed in 2020:

• Outreach strategy completed: the outreach strategy is aimed at supporting the expansion of CEWARN’s stakeholder-base & strengthening engagement with decision makers.
• € 3 million availed for conflict prevention initiatives: Through the Rapid Response Fund, CEWARN mobilized three million Euros ready for use by member states for early response initiatives for a period of two years. Funds were obtained from the Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the governments of Netherlands and Sweden as well as the European Union through
• Assessment on efficacy of CEWARN early warning methodology completed and output shared : CEWARN commissioned a retroactive review of the efficacy of its CEWARN’s situation reports in predicting incidents that were recorded from 2003-2015. The assessment yielded evidence in support of the CEWARN Risk model’s predictive ability  while identifying areas for improvement. Areas for improvement include gaps in infrastructure and human resource capacity at the national level as well as consistency in field reporting.
• Conflict Profiling for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan : CEWARN facilitated national conflict profiling and scenario building exercises for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan. The exercises brought together thematic experts in governance, Security, economy, social affairs and environment sectors that reflect the broad areas of focus of CEWARN’s conflict early warning work. The aim of these exercises is to identify emerging risks of violent conflict with a view to inform CEWARN’s early warning and response work.
• GIS platform launched: CEWARN’s GIS Unit launched a platform that regularly avails maps that provide spatial analysis of conflicts in the region containing physical and human factors of conflicts – where applicable. CEWARN uses open source data from its incident reporter database and its situation room reports as well as other available data sources.
• National experts refine CEWARN conflict early warning indicators : CEWARN convened sector experts from Member States to review and refine its conflict early warning indicators that are used to compile incident and situation reports along CEWARN’s five sectors of focus, namely: Security, Governance, Social Affairs, Economy and Environment. The delegates also provided their inputs on customization of current analytic products to better suit the needs of their respective institutions. 

For further details , please refer to the attached newsletter, CEWARN Reflections 2020.

CEWARN convened an annual review meeting of its conflict early warning indicators from 24-26 November in Naivasha, Kenya.

CEWARN broke norm this year by inviting representatives of line ministries from the seven IGAD member states: Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda that reflect is five sectors of Focus. In preceding years, the exercise involved representatives of CEWARN’s national research institutes with relevant expertise.

Since 2012, CEWARN’s conflict early warning and response operations are organized around five sectors, namely: security, governance, social affairs, economy and environment. The multi-sectoral focus that cumulatively covers all scopes of human activity enables robust conflict prevention and peace building interventions to human security challenges in the IGAD region. CEWARN’s early warning operations are also guided by a set of indicators across its five sectors of focus that were methodically developed to monitor and analyze regional developments.

Given that CEWARN’s current strategic focus is engaging with high level decision making in IGAD Member States, engagement with relevant line-ministries is a step forward in this direction. This move is aimed at complementing CEWARN’s routine short-term or crisis management focus with longer-term structural prevention support to Member States.

Accordingly, the review meeting entailed: a presentation on CEWARN’s operations with a focus on its early warning methodology and tools as well as presentation on CEWARN’s analytic reports/ products. Subsequently, delegates worked along sectoral groups to examine CEWARN’s early warning indicators and proposed improvements. The delegates also provided their inputs on customization of current analytic products to better suit the needs of their respective institutions. #

CEWARN facilitated a national conflict profiling exercise for Kenya on 9-14 November 2020 in Naivasha, Kenya. The exercise covered six cross border counties in Kenya, namely: Marsabit, Madera, Wajir, Garissa, Turkana and West Pokot.

It also drew together about thirty participants including County Commissioners as well as representatives of county government and civil society organizations. The aim of the exercise was to identify emerging risks of violent conflict in these counties with a view to inform CEWARN’s early warning and response work in Kenya.

The national conflict profiling exercise identified key developments and trends-to-watch as threats to human security as well as short, medium and long-term scenarios with corresponding recommendations.

The discussions were guided by a focus on human security and discussions around governance, Security, economy, social affairs and environment sectors that reflect the scope of CEWARN’s conflict early warning work.

Issues that were raised pertaining to peace and security across the six counties included: rivalry over political/ elective offices and negative ethnicity; internal and cross-border boundary disputes; resource based conflicts (including among mobile pastoralists involving Cattle rustling), highway banditry, violent extremism (including threat of homegrown radicalization); small arms proliferation; disputes related to oil/gas exploration and disputes related to displacement of communities for development as well as gender based violence( including early marriages and FGM.)

It was also noted that contestations for political offices during the 2022 general elections are likely to be accompanied by risks of insecurity.

CEWARN’s GIS Unit regularly produces maps that provide spatial analysis of conflicts in the region containing physical and human factors of conflicts – where applicable. CEWARN uses open source data from its incident reporter database and its situation room reports as well as other available data sources like ACLED.

Currently, there are three categories of maps highlighted below, which can be easily accessed through the links provided. Links are regularly updated whenever modifications are done.

IGAD Region Civil Dissents Map:

Civil dissent incidents include Protests, Riots, and Demonstrations in the region that have been captured in these various sources. The incidents are analysed and mapped on a bimonthly basis. Civil dissent incidents are important as a key indicator on the state of affairs and stability or fragility of a given country or Region.

https://cewarn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=2e435fb6cca143d881283141e6f50ed5

Map on the IGAD Region Nile Riparian States, Existing and Contested Investments and Conflicts:

Major investments along the main tributaries of the Nile, riparian states and contested investments.

https://cewarn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=71ffa15f58684a598030ca1b1decd298

Map on Inter communal conflicts in the Major Pastoralist clusters in the Region:

Cluster 1, (Karamoja, Turkana and Toposa) Pastoral conflicts associated with adverse weather and environmental conditions

https://cewarn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=2c042570a1604aff8b2151b0acf0aebf

CEWARN facilitated a national conflict profiling exercise for Ethiopia on 19 – 23 October in Bishoftu, The exercise drew together over thirty thematic experts in governance, Security, economy, social affairs and environment sectors that reflect the broad areas of focus of CEWARN’s conflict early warning work.

The experts that represent a mix of governmental and non-governmental entities were also drawn from provincial and federal entities across the country. The aim of the exercise was to identify emerging risks of violent conflict in the country with a view to inform CEWARN’s early warning and response work in Ethiopia.

The national conflict profiling exercise entailed identification of key developments in the country along the five sectors of focus and corresponding trends-to-watch as threats to human security in Ethiopia.

Some of the themes that came up include: youth unemployment and radicalization; heightened ethnic-based tensions; migration and internal displacement; questions related to constitutional reform; environmental degradation/disasters as well as resource based conflicts. 

CEWARN held a virtual policy seminar on the assessment of the efficacy of CEWARN’s early warning methodology in anticipating violent conflicts. The seminar that was held on 21 October 2020 drew together Permanent Secretaries of foreign affairs of IGAD Member states; IGAD committee of Ambassadors as well as senior representatives of partner organizations including Amb. Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.

The IGAD Executive Secretary Dr. Workneh in his opening remarks stated that since its establishment in 2002, CEWARN has grown into a robust mechanism that is able to deal with a broad scope of peace and security challenges. In its initial years, CEWARN had an exclusive focus on early warning for cross border pastoral conflicts in borderland regions of IGAD member states.

He stated that the assessment is timely and pertinent as strengthening regional cooperation in conflict prevention through early warning and response is a critical priority for IGAD. He said the need is currently more pronounced as the IGAD region’s peace and security challenges are compounded by multiple hazards including the COVID-19 pandemic, severe floods and desert locust invasion.

The CEWARN Director, Mr. Camlus Omogo presented the findings of the assessment on the efficacy of CEWARN’s early warning methodology that was conducted by using data sets from 2003-2015. He indicated that the assessment covered a retrospective review on whether CEWARN’s situation reports predicted incidents that were recorded in that period.

Mr. Omogo stated that the assessment yielded substantive evidence in support of the CEWARN Risk model while identifying areas for improvement. These include the need for greater investment in improving infrastructure and human resource capacity at the national level as well as achieving higher levels of consistency in field reporting.

CEWARN’s current scope of conflict early warning operation is organized under five sectors namely: economy, social affairs, security, governance and environment. CEWARN monitors developments in the region in each sector that impact regional peace and security.

Mr. Omogo stated that CEWARN’s current risk model is much more cutting age and supports: multi-dimensional and engendered situation analysis; monitoring and analysis of response intervention; identification of at risk groups as well as an integration of engendered groups at risk in every field situation assessment.

Please find a summary version of the assessment report here.

The subject of the contract is the supply, delivery, maintenance and after sales service by the contractor of two 4WD Motor Vehicles

Contract No: IPPSHAR -6545-01/2017-1.3.3.1/2.1 RRF-01/2020

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development Peace and Security Division (IGAD PSD – CEWARN) intends to award a contract for the Supply of Two 4WD Motor Vehicles. The complete tender dossier can be downloaded from IGAD and Austrian Development Agency websites: https://igad.int/ https://entwicklung.at

The deadline for submission of applications is on or before 24/07/2020 at 12.00. 

Joshua Turinawe MCIPS, IGAD PSD procurement officer.