Alert
CLIMATE-INDUCED CONFLICT SEASONAL ALERT
March–May (MAM) 2025
This alert assesses the potential conflict implications of the 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF69) March–May (MAM) 2025 rainfall seasonal forecast. It focuses on climate-conflict-prone clusters in the region, analyzing how climate variability, combined with human conflict risk behavior, may act as triggers for instability.
By providing early warning insights, this report aims to inform policy responses and conflict prevention strategies in the IGAD region.
IGAD/CEWARN’s ALERT ON CLIMATE-INDUCED CONFLICT IN CLIMATE-HAZARD PRONE CLUSTERS
This report forecasts potential conflicts in the IGAD region’s climate-sensitive areas for June to September 2024 by analyzing vegetation health and conflict risk, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and past conflict data to anticipate future clashes. It covers vulnerable zones at the borders of Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, with monthly updates based on evolving climate conditions.
