2021 National and Regional Conflict Profiling and Scenario Building Reports
CEWARN regularly convenes national and regional conflict profiling and scenario building exercises that engage critical informants at sub-national and national levels across governance, security, economy, social affairs and environment sectors.
These exercises identify issues that are perceived to be critical in nature that may disrupt the political and socio-economic stability of a member state and the wider region. They also provide better understanding of structural and situational factors that cause insecurity and trigger violent conflicts. The outcome documents of these exercises include response recommendations towards addressing looming violent conflict threats.
CEWARN held national conflict profiling and scenario building exercises for all IGAD Member States in 2021 and subsequently a regional exercise. The regional exercise identified nine key issues of regional nature that are a high-risk factor in perpetuating or causing conflict if not addressed. These include; high youth unemployment, pandemics, mismanagement of electoral processes, extreme climatic conditions, land and natural resource-based conflicts, polarized ethnicity and tribalism, violent extremism, and inter-state conflicts.